4 Betting Systems for the NBA
NBA Sports Betting With Lebron James And Spalding Basketball
The triangle offense, hack-a-Shaq, 3-and-D basketball 벳무브 is full of systems that teams utilize to come away with a win on the court. Luckily, sports bettors have also formulated a few systems of their own over the years that have resulted in consistent wins.
While it’s certainly true that each game must be evaluated on an individual basis, there are several ways you can simplify the process by having a set of rules to use before your place a bet.
Whether you’re looking to cash in on game totals, the spread, or the moneyline, consider trying out these betting “systems” and see if you can find one that works for you.
1 – Out of Conference Overs
Betting totals can seem tricky in the NBA, as regular season game flow can be difficult to predict. Knowing when players are going to take a night off, literally or figuratively, is a major factor in final scores, and it can be difficult to pin down when these occurrences will happen.
However, one sharp found a system that has worked to the tune of nearly 64% over the course of 10 years.
He found that the most reliable way to win totals bets was by taking the over when teams were playing across conferences.
The data was gathered by betting the over on every game with a total of 220 or less. While it may seem oversimplified to bet based on just two criteria, there’s some rationale for why this works at a high rate.
NBA teams generally score lower when they’re familiar with playing each other. Intra-conference games usually carry a little bit more weight; the heightened competitiveness can lead to a closer game with better defense.
Although the 220 number might seem high, the average points-per-game for an NBA team continues to grow. NBA sportsbooks are aware of this, but the general public still hasn’t necessarily caught all the way up to the trend.
Lastly, games between conferences are more likely to finish with a wider margin of victory for the winning team. Although this might not necessarily seem to favor the total one way or the other, consider this, teams who are losing often foul late in games to try to catch up. These “garbage time” foul shots have changed the outcomes for many bettors over the years.
2 – Go With Well-Rested Teams
It’s no secret that in sports, rest matters a great deal over the course of a long season. As previously mentioned, NBA players typically take a game off here and there throughout the course of the season in an effort to maintain their health for the playoffs.
Toronto Raptors With Benched Players
You can use this to your advantage as well.
When evaluating a point spread, or even a moneyline, 피나클 take a look at each team’s schedule and see when their last game was played. Although the NBA has tried to limit back-to-back and three-games-in-four-nights scenarios, they still happen a few times a year for each team.
If you’re able to find a game where one team is coming off a couple days of rest and one team played the night before, it’s a good idea to choose the team with rest on their side.
If you’re looking to add another factor to these bets, consider a counterintuitive concept that has been making NBA bettors money for years—margin of victory in the previous game.
Teams that are playing on the second night of a back-to-back that won the first game by more than 15 points cover the spread in the second game only about 40% of the time.
If you’re thinking that all these factors rarely fall into place, you might be surprised to find it’s not nearly as rare as it seems. These are the games where it’s a smart play to bet the max percentage of the bankroll that you’ve set for yourself.
3 – Total Win-Win
The odds between sportsbooks generally don’t differ too significantly, but when they do, there’s an opportunity for bettors to use these differences for a big payday.
Next time you’re looking to make a bet on totals, browse a dozen or so online sportsbooks (or even less) and see if you can find a game that has a discrepancy of three points or more. Again, this scenario isn’t typically available, but if you look often enough, you will find them.
Not to mention, with an 82-game season, there are plenty of opportunities.
If you find a sportsbook with this discrepancy, bet the over with one book and the under with another book. You might be thinking that this is a sure way to lose money with the juice factored in, but it’s also an opportunity to win both bets. And with the juice only around 10%, you could make a nice profit if these hit one out of five times.
If you’re an avid bettor, you know that sportsbooks are generally accurate when choosing the number for the totals. Most games do end up close to the number one way or another, and if it’s in the middle, you would win both bets!
FOR EXAMPLE:
If the Lakers are playing the Clippers and the total is at 216 on one book and 212 at another, if you bet both the over and the under, you could win both bets if it falls between the two numbers.
Obviously, this is a very difficult wager to win, but it’s low-risk and can payoff big time if you’re able to hit on one.
4 – Back-to-Backs
It goes without saying that teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back are at a disadvantage, but sportsbooks know this and set spreads accordingly.
However, there are a few extra factors to take into consideration that can tip the scales in your favor.
The analytics team at numberFire did a study during 2016 that got a closer look at back-to-backs and which types of teams were most impacted by the lack of rest.
First, they looked at teams that were below .500 on the season. They found that teams who had a losing record lost 11% more frequently than normal. This number was only 5% for teams over .500.
Next, they examined how home and away status affected the outcome of the game. They determined that teams who were playing on the road in the second game of a back-to-back lost at a rate of 18% higher than normal.
While these are great numbers to utilize when making a play, you can take things a step further by adding in a few additional factors to consider.
Teams that are younger will generally have less of a drop-off on the second night of a back-to-back simply because they don’t require the same amount of rest that veteran rosters do. Additionally, coaches have a tendency to give veteran players more time on the bench in the second night of a back-to-back.
You can do more research on your own to figure out a specific set of rules to look for. But one thing is certain, back-to-back games in the NBA present a great opportunity for sports bettors if you know what to look for in a matchup.
Conclusion
For reasons I haven’t been able to figure out, the NBA is one of the most under-bet sports out there today. Just as the NFL is so difficult because of all the action it receives each week, the NBA is filled with great opportunities.
Sportsbooks are less likely to focus on each individual game due to sheer volume.
It’s important to remember that while no betting system is perfect, these act as a guide and shed some light on what has worked for bettors in the past. As always, gather as much information as possible and you can find yourself with a few extra dollars come playoff time.